Technological Singularity

by Francis Scudellari of in-the-stream.blogspot.com

L.S. graciously asked me to write this guest post in connection with her fascinating series of articles exploring the meaning of the Mayan calendar and its seemingly portentous end date of 2012. My formidable task here is to try to connect the Mayan's ancient prediction of a soon-to-be world-changing event with an eerily similar forecast of a paradigm shift by our contemporary technologists.

There is a very tangible and widespread sense today that we're currently living through a critical stage of human history. What exactly our time may be prelude to is of course a question that can provoke a very heated debate. As L.S. has very insightfully interpreted here, the Mayan myths associated with 2012 seem to intimate an evolutionary leap in consciousness. Modern futurists describe an equally momentous transition that could either mark the end of the human era, or propel us to feats beyond our wildest imagination.

This turning point is most commonly referred to as the "technological singularity." The term singularity was first used in the field of astrophysics to describe a phenomenon, such as a black hole, where the normal methods of measurement cease to exist. When applied to technological advancement, it's meant to signify a knowledge explosion that disintegrates conceptual obstacles that have long hindered our problem-solving capabilities.

In 1965, British mathematician I.J. Good described the implications of the advent of a super-human, artificial intelligence:

"Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make."

In his 1993 essay entitled "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era," science-fiction author Vernor Vinge predicted that the singularity could happen within 30 years (a timeline that neatly brackets the Mayan's own projected terminus for human history) and would mark the end of humankind's dominion as masters of our world's destiny.

Technologist and futurist Raymond Kurzweil's view of the singularity is more inclusive of humanity. He believes that the development of artificial intelligence will proceed hand-in-hand with that of our own. Computer intelligence will be modeled on the human brain and breakthroughs could occur as hardware implants are invented to augment our own gray matter. He sees this as the first step toward immortality. Consciousness will be stored like software on redundant servers; a reality that will enable it to transcend the limits of its currently degradable container.

Both Vinge's bleak and Kurzweil's rosy interpretations are predicated on the "universal law" that knowledge undergoes exponential growth. Some dispute that, but it's hard to argue against the widespread feeling that we're being propelled into uncharted waters by a seemingly constant flow of innovations. As more and more advances occur, and apparently disparate fields (biology, genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, etc.) begin to converge, we could reach a tipping point after which rapid-paced changes cascade down on us.

Kurzweil, who has proven himself fairly reliable at estimating timelines so far, predicts that the singularity will happen in 2045. That's a bit further into the future than the Mayan's key date of December 21, 2012, but what happens four years hence may be just the planting of a seed that takes 30 years to bear fruit.

The microchip was invented in 1971, but it wasn't until the past decade that we've witnessed its truly paradigm-shifting repercussions. So too, we may see a breakthrough in 2012 that precipitates the singularity Kurzweil and other futurists forecast. It might be the first flickering of self-awareness in a computer program's subroutine, or the first successful implant of a silicon chip to cure blindness, or the waking to consciousness of the noösphere as the vast stores of our collective experience on the Internet reaches critical mass. The Mayans may well prove better soothsayers than we ever imagined.

References:

Wired Magazine: 16.04
Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

Wikipedia
Technological Singularity